***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 26.2 46.9 53.5 115.2 67.3 57.4 26.3 35.6 46.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.8 41.1 45.7 111.1 64.7 53.6 24.6 32.7 42.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.4 53.8 50.5 109.1 63.4 54.9 31.6 43.2 56.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 52.2 58.9 59.0 109.8 63.9 57.0 34.4 46.8 60.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 49.7 58.8 60.5 116.0 68.2 60.6 34.8 45.2 56.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 41.3 48.3 57.4 115.2 67.6 59.4 27.1 36.5 47.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 25.3 44.5 45.9 113.4 66.0 54.6 25.7 34.6 44.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 77.0 78.8 64.9 121.4 71.9 62.3 48.7 60.4 73.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 40.4 47.8 60.1 113.3 66.5 59.2 26.9 36.4 47.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 50.2 60.0 63.7 116.0 68.6 60.8 34.2 45.3 57.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 58.4 59.4 60.7 118.5 69.8 61.8 32.0 43.2 55.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 63.1 65.8 60.7 123.4 72.9 62.6 33.9 45.6 58.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 58.8 58.7 63.1 117.2 69.3 60.4 35.9 45.5 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 61.4 65.1 61.2 107.5 62.3 55.1 43.9 55.4 68.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 54.9 59.7 55.2 102.1 60.2 53.8 30.1 47.0 68.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 55.2 55.9 60.0 117.7 69.3 60.6 30.1 40.6 52.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 25.6 43.8 43.3 109.5 63.8 53.3 25.6 35.0 45.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 47.7 54.6 64.3 113.7 67.1 59.6 34.1 43.5 53.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 26.4 46.1 46.7 109.3 63.5 53.2 27.4 37.1 48.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 35.1 65.1 78.9 117.2 69.5 59.4 35.2 47.6 61.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 45.5 51.7 56.5 111.0 64.8 57.3 30.2 40.7 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 41.8 44.8 45.0 107.6 62.8 52.7 27.6 36.7 47.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 25.9 43.3 50.0 107.5 62.4 53.3 27.4 36.0 45.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 54.6 58.7 58.2 109.8 64.0 57.2 41.4 50.3 59.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 43.0 50.8 61.4 116.8 68.4 59.5 29.5 38.6 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 45.4 54.0 60.1 118.4 69.5 60.9 31.4 40.8 51.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 45.5 54.7 57.6 119.0 69.7 59.1 30.0 40.0 51.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 45.2 51.1 55.7 107.2 62.7 55.8 27.7 39.9 54.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 74.6 83.7 67.8 112.7 66.4 58.4 53.1 67.4 83.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 24.5 44.1 47.3 111.3 64.8 53.9 25.3 34.5 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------