***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 1.2 0.1 1.7 -0.5 42.4 43.0 -0.7 0.8 2.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 59.3 58.2 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 2.2 1.4 1.5 -0.3 44.7 45.1 0.4 1.8 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -2.8 -2.7 -0.6 0.4 55.7 55.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 44.3 44.8 -1.9 -0.2 1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 -0.3 -0.7 -1.9 0.0 49.5 49.9 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 0.5 1.0 2.3 0.7 60.2 59.0 -1.3 0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -6.1 -5.9 -2.9 -1.6 31.0 32.5 -5.8 -4.3 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.4 44.3 44.9 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.2 35.4 36.7 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 38.6 39.5 -1.9 -0.2 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -2.4 -1.7 30.2 31.5 -2.5 -0.7 0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 0.3 -1.5 -1.8 -0.9 38.0 39.3 -2.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 1.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 36.8 38.5 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 68.1 66.9 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 1.1 -0.5 -1.8 -0.9 38.6 39.6 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 1.1 1.3 2.6 1.3 69.6 67.3 -1.6 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -2.8 -2.4 -1.2 35.3 36.5 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 0.6 0.7 2.0 0.4 55.7 55.0 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -7.1 -7.1 -4.3 -1.9 28.5 30.4 -6.4 -4.2 -2.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 0.6 0.2 1.5 -0.1 49.4 49.6 -1.4 0.2 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 0.2 1.1 2.3 1.0 65.4 63.5 -1.5 -0.1 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 0.6 0.1 1.2 -0.1 48.0 48.2 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 0.7 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 42.4 43.2 -1.0 0.3 1.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 0.8 0.1 1.0 -0.4 44.9 45.7 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 0.2 -1.4 -1.7 -1.0 37.1 38.5 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 0.9 -0.3 1.3 -0.5 42.5 43.2 -1.3 0.5 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.6 58.3 58.0 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 -4.0 -2.0 27.5 29.3 -3.9 -2.3 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 0.8 0.8 2.1 0.2 53.4 52.9 -1.1 0.5 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------