***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.8 62.5 61.8 -1.9 -1.0 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 1.3 69.0 67.6 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.9 64.5 63.6 -0.4 0.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -3.7 -3.7 -2.4 1.4 68.8 67.0 -5.8 -4.8 -3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 -0.6 -0.8 -2.4 1.1 65.3 64.1 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 -1.3 -1.4 -3.8 1.1 65.7 63.8 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.3 0.5 1.3 68.9 67.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -5.9 -5.6 -3.9 0.8 60.9 60.3 -7.1 -6.2 -5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 0.2 0.0 -1.5 1.1 66.2 64.9 -1.8 -0.9 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -0.7 -3.0 0.9 62.7 61.8 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 -0.6 -0.8 -2.9 1.1 63.9 63.0 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -1.6 -3.4 0.8 60.6 60.3 -3.2 -2.2 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 -1.4 -1.0 -3.4 0.9 61.9 61.1 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 0.3 0.2 -1.6 1.1 66.8 65.3 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.9 1.7 74.1 71.9 -2.5 -1.7 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 0.0 -0.2 -3.3 1.0 63.6 62.7 -1.8 -0.9 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 1.6 72.8 70.9 -2.5 -1.6 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 -2.1 -2.5 -3.5 0.8 61.9 61.1 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 1.2 68.3 66.9 -2.1 -1.2 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2 0.6 58.7 58.1 -7.1 -5.8 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.1 66.6 65.3 -2.0 -1.1 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 1.5 72.2 70.5 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 67.3 66.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 -0.4 -0.6 -1.8 1.0 65.7 64.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 -0.2 -0.4 -1.1 1.0 64.6 63.5 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -1.2 -3.3 0.7 60.6 60.1 -2.8 -1.8 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 62.9 62.0 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -1.5 -2.1 1.5 70.6 68.7 -3.5 -2.6 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.5 -3.5 -4.5 0.5 57.3 57.5 -4.8 -3.9 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 0.0 -0.1 0.4 1.1 66.6 65.5 -1.9 -1.0 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------