***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 5.6 6.2 5.4 1.0 60.6 59.3 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.0 5.6 1.4 64.8 63.2 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 7.8 7.4 5.7 1.3 63.4 61.7 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.3 2.6 3.8 1.5 65.9 63.6 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 7.8 7.4 4.1 1.4 64.6 62.3 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.5 3.3 1.3 63.6 61.4 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 6.0 5.7 5.4 1.3 63.4 61.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 2.0 1.8 3.7 1.6 67.7 64.5 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.4 8.0 4.8 1.4 64.8 62.3 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.1 4.3 1.5 66.2 63.2 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 7.9 7.4 3.9 1.3 64.1 62.0 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.9 7.4 3.8 1.3 64.1 61.9 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 7.6 6.8 3.3 1.0 60.8 59.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.2 5.3 1.7 66.9 64.2 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 47 53 100 5.9 6.1 4.4 1.8 68.4 65.8 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 8.3 7.7 3.6 1.2 62.7 61.0 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.7 5.5 1.5 66.0 64.2 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.5 4.2 1.6 66.5 63.5 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.8 5.8 1.5 65.3 63.5 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.2 2.9 1.9 70.7 66.4 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 7.8 7.4 5.2 1.3 63.5 61.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.5 5.6 1.6 67.0 65.0 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.7 5.9 1.5 65.8 63.7 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.3 5.1 1.5 65.6 63.0 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.1 4.1 1.1 62.2 60.5 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.9 3.2 0.9 60.8 59.6 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.8 4.7 0.9 60.2 58.9 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 6.5 6.6 4.1 1.7 67.1 64.6 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.4 3.7 1.7 67.8 64.5 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 6.4 6.0 5.6 1.3 63.5 62.0 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------