***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 6.5 6.6 5.9 1.6 73.3 70.9 3.9 5.0 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 6.0 6.2 5.9 1.9 76.2 73.7 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 7.5 7.7 6.1 1.8 75.8 73.0 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 2.4 2.8 4.0 2.0 78.0 74.7 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.3 4.4 1.7 75.1 71.8 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 6.7 6.9 3.8 1.6 74.3 70.8 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 5.7 5.9 5.8 1.8 75.2 72.8 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 1.3 1.7 4.0 1.7 77.6 72.8 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.3 5.4 1.8 77.1 73.2 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.3 4.6 1.7 76.7 72.4 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.5 4.3 1.6 74.4 71.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 7.4 7.7 4.2 1.5 74.9 71.1 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.2 4.0 1.3 71.5 68.6 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 8.0 8.5 5.8 2.0 79.0 75.0 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 5.7 6.2 5.0 2.4 82.4 78.8 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 7.7 7.9 4.1 1.5 73.1 70.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 5.4 5.7 5.8 2.0 77.4 74.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 5.0 5.3 4.5 1.6 76.3 71.7 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 6.5 6.8 6.1 1.9 76.6 74.0 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 4.2 4.7 3.0 1.5 77.6 71.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 7.4 7.7 5.9 1.8 76.9 73.4 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 6.1 6.4 5.9 2.0 78.0 75.4 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 6.5 6.8 6.2 1.9 77.3 74.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 8.0 8.4 5.6 1.8 77.5 73.5 5.2 6.4 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 6.2 6.3 4.7 1.7 75.0 72.1 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.6 6.7 3.6 1.3 72.4 68.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 7.3 7.3 5.3 1.5 72.7 70.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 6.5 6.9 4.5 2.2 79.4 76.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 4.0 4.3 3.8 1.5 75.7 70.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 6.1 6.3 6.0 1.8 75.2 72.8 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------