***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.3 3.6 26.6 23.7 21.9 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.4 26.1 22.9 20.1 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.6 2.0 3.1 23.2 21.1 19.1 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 2.8 1.4 2.5 14.5 10.9 10.7 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 3.0 1.9 3.6 23.9 17.4 16.7 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.5 4.4 30.1 22.4 19.8 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 2.6 2.7 4.3 33.4 28.6 25.4 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 4.7 3.5 4.0 26.1 19.6 17.5 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.7 2.2 4.6 33.1 25.6 23.9 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 3.6 2.7 4.5 30.7 23.0 21.1 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 2.6 1.5 3.0 21.4 18.6 16.2 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 3.4 2.1 3.5 24.4 19.6 17.1 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 2.7 1.8 3.4 23.1 17.3 15.5 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.3 2.9 3.5 23.2 19.3 17.0 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 1.2 0.1 1.7 9.1 8.7 8.0 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 2.3 1.5 3.4 23.6 18.7 16.8 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.7 2.7 4.3 32.7 29.6 25.4 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 4.5 3.9 5.6 36.3 25.7 23.9 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.4 25.4 21.6 19.1 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 3.2 1.7 4.9 23.7 15.9 15.2 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 2.8 2.1 3.4 25.0 22.3 20.3 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.8 1.5 3.7 26.6 22.5 19.4 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.8 28.0 22.7 20.6 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 3.8 3.1 4.4 29.9 24.1 21.6 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 2.7 1.9 4.2 26.0 19.3 18.5 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.2 3.9 22.5 18.5 16.5 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.6 3.1 4.9 32.9 25.8 24.1 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.5 2.1 13.3 10.9 10.2 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 5.2 4.1 5.5 32.9 23.0 21.3 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 2.3 2.1 3.4 25.8 21.9 19.8 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------