***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 1.8 2.4 5.2 43.7 35.5 27.6 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 1.7 2.0 4.2 37.6 31.0 23.5 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.3 3.1 5.4 43.2 34.3 26.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.5 4.2 5.4 37.6 31.0 24.7 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.6 4.3 6.4 42.3 33.2 27.2 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.0 1.9 6.4 42.0 30.1 26.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.0 2.7 4.3 39.6 33.7 25.4 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 7.0 7.4 6.1 37.3 28.3 24.3 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.4 7.3 47.9 36.9 30.0 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.5 4.0 7.2 44.6 33.4 27.8 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.5 37.9 30.0 25.0 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.2 5.2 35.5 27.8 23.9 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.4 3.5 5.9 39.6 29.9 26.0 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.6 4.7 7.0 46.5 33.3 27.0 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 1.6 1.5 4.1 27.2 24.2 17.8 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.9 5.3 37.0 28.6 24.5 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 2.1 2.7 4.0 37.0 31.7 23.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.3 3.9 8.2 47.6 33.6 28.6 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 2.5 3.1 4.5 38.9 31.3 23.9 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 4.4 4.6 7.7 38.0 27.7 24.5 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.0 4.0 6.4 46.5 36.2 29.0 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.1 2.5 4.1 35.7 28.2 22.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.5 3.7 5.5 44.3 34.1 26.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.9 5.0 7.3 47.8 34.7 28.2 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.0 6.2 43.7 35.1 28.3 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.3 3.1 5.6 37.5 27.8 24.2 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.7 6.1 46.5 36.8 29.3 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.1 2.2 4.6 31.6 26.5 20.6 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 5.8 6.6 8.3 45.6 31.9 27.5 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.9 2.4 4.4 39.2 32.0 24.3 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------