***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.5 16.8 13.7 122.5 70.6 55.2 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 14.3 13.4 133.5 73.7 58.3 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.1 13.6 120.7 70.3 55.7 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.3 14.2 13.7 100.8 64.0 50.7 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.4 13.8 101.5 63.8 51.6 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.5 9.3 11.6 85.4 56.9 45.7 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.8 13.3 133.2 73.6 58.3 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.0 18.8 14.0 94.0 61.1 50.2 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.2 14.2 102.6 64.2 52.1 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 14.9 14.3 97.2 62.3 51.2 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.8 12.0 12.6 96.3 61.9 50.4 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.5 12.3 91.4 59.7 48.6 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.5 13.0 12.1 89.0 58.3 47.4 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 21.0 15.2 112.9 67.7 54.6 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.1 12.2 87.2 60.0 47.1 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.7 11.9 93.1 60.3 48.5 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.9 12.7 137.8 74.8 58.8 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 14.2 15.4 98.3 62.6 51.3 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.5 15.4 13.4 129.3 72.6 57.5 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 18.1 18.3 98.8 63.1 51.8 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.4 15.4 13.8 110.5 67.1 53.9 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 11.4 13.1 13.3 136.0 74.3 59.1 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 13.4 13.6 122.3 70.6 56.3 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.9 18.2 14.6 107.4 65.9 53.1 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.4 15.4 15.7 120.3 69.9 55.2 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 10.9 11.9 86.2 57.6 47.3 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.5 17.5 15.2 126.1 71.6 56.4 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.5 12.2 90.3 60.7 47.8 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.7 24.9 16.5 99.4 63.1 51.5 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.5 13.6 130.4 72.9 57.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------