***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.8 7.2 7.2 78.3 53.2 41.3 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.4 6.2 68.5 49.6 39.5 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.6 10.9 7.5 82.2 55.4 43.0 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.7 12.9 9.6 94.6 61.3 47.3 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.9 14.2 9.6 97.5 62.0 47.4 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.9 15.6 11.2 115.2 68.9 54.6 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.9 6.1 66.0 47.4 37.9 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.0 19.5 11.4 109.8 66.6 50.6 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.3 9.6 93.6 60.0 46.0 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.8 10.9 101.9 63.4 48.7 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.4 15.3 9.6 106.9 65.6 49.3 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.8 10.0 113.8 68.0 51.0 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.6 10.7 117.6 69.4 53.9 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.2 15.2 9.9 89.2 58.9 46.6 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.6 9.0 89.5 60.7 47.1 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.9 13.8 9.8 112.6 67.6 51.4 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.0 5.9 66.5 48.4 39.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 9.8 11.6 98.4 62.0 48.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.0 6.5 72.9 52.1 41.3 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.1 14.1 14.9 105.6 65.3 50.6 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.8 8.6 88.6 58.0 44.1 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.5 6.3 72.4 52.4 42.4 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.8 8.8 7.5 80.4 55.7 44.0 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.7 11.5 9.8 91.8 59.6 46.7 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.0 9.1 85.9 57.4 44.9 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.4 13.8 10.7 115.5 68.7 52.3 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.1 9.3 8.1 79.7 53.6 42.2 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.4 9.6 99.2 63.6 48.6 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.6 18.2 12.6 99.9 62.9 49.5 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.8 7.7 6.4 71.3 50.7 40.0 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------