***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 24.8 25.4 29.7 64.9 30.1 30.6 27.1 37.6 49.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 25.1 25.4 27.2 62.9 29.5 30.2 27.1 35.7 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 33.7 32.2 29.7 64.1 28.6 30.0 35.2 47.0 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 31.9 30.2 31.2 56.2 23.7 25.7 36.6 48.4 61.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 33.6 32.8 33.5 62.0 26.0 28.0 37.2 47.9 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 25.9 25.8 33.5 63.3 24.5 27.0 30.3 39.5 49.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.9 28.1 65.1 31.6 31.6 27.7 37.3 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 46.7 45.4 35.6 62.2 23.9 27.0 51.8 63.8 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 28.8 29.1 35.6 67.0 30.3 31.5 30.6 39.4 49.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 35.7 35.6 36.8 65.6 27.4 29.5 38.7 49.0 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 34.0 32.9 30.7 60.6 24.8 27.2 37.6 47.6 58.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 33.3 31.7 31.1 60.5 23.2 26.3 37.7 48.1 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 32.4 30.4 32.1 61.2 22.0 25.5 36.9 47.0 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 42.4 43.1 35.6 65.0 26.0 28.5 48.2 60.0 72.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 26.6 22.7 27.0 46.8 21.4 22.8 32.9 49.5 69.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 27.8 26.1 30.4 60.6 23.7 26.5 31.7 42.5 54.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 26.7 28.1 26.9 64.1 32.2 31.8 28.4 37.6 47.9 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 33.3 34.3 40.8 67.7 28.5 30.3 36.9 45.8 55.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 27.7 27.4 27.8 62.9 28.2 29.4 30.1 40.1 51.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 33.1 31.1 45.8 61.7 22.9 26.1 38.4 51.0 65.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 30.5 30.1 32.2 65.0 29.8 30.9 32.1 43.1 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 27.0 27.2 27.5 62.3 28.1 29.0 29.8 39.1 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.4 27.7 30.4 65.3 28.4 29.9 30.2 39.1 48.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 39.6 41.1 36.0 66.8 28.7 30.3 43.6 53.7 64.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.0 35.2 65.1 29.4 30.6 29.2 39.9 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 29.6 26.1 32.2 58.2 18.9 23.0 34.0 43.3 53.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 28.3 29.7 34.4 68.4 32.3 32.4 30.2 41.0 53.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 26.7 24.5 28.6 52.4 22.4 24.3 31.5 43.5 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 53.3 54.2 42.9 66.7 27.4 29.4 58.7 72.4 86.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 25.8 25.3 27.8 63.5 29.0 29.9 27.4 37.4 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------