***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 1.1 2.6 2.7 4.2 85.1 79.2 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 0.8 1.9 2.1 3.7 82.5 77.2 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 2.5 3.8 2.5 3.9 84.4 78.9 -1.6 0.0 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -2.5 -1.1 -0.2 3.9 83.6 78.6 -7.2 -5.3 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 0.1 1.3 0.4 4.1 83.7 79.2 -3.6 -2.1 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 -0.3 0.6 -1.4 3.8 82.2 78.5 -3.9 -2.4 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 0.6 1.6 2.1 3.7 81.9 76.8 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 -4.2 -2.8 -0.9 4.3 83.7 79.2 -8.6 -6.8 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 0.8 2.0 0.8 4.1 83.7 79.1 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 0.1 1.2 -0.4 4.3 83.7 79.2 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 0.3 1.4 -0.1 4.1 83.0 78.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 -0.1 1.0 -0.4 4.2 83.1 79.1 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 0.1 1.1 -0.7 4.1 83.0 79.0 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 1.1 2.2 0.6 4.1 82.9 78.2 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 0.0 0.8 0.5 3.5 82.0 77.0 -3.7 -2.3 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 0.8 1.7 -0.6 4.0 82.7 78.7 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.5 80.6 75.6 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 -1.6 -0.4 -0.9 4.3 83.4 78.8 -5.4 -3.8 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 0.8 2.0 2.1 3.8 83.2 77.8 -3.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 -2.7 -0.9 -1.7 4.5 84.0 79.0 -8.1 -5.9 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 0.9 2.4 1.9 4.1 84.5 79.2 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 0.5 1.5 1.8 3.5 81.4 76.3 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 0.4 1.7 2.1 3.8 83.7 78.3 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 -0.2 0.8 0.3 4.0 83.1 78.6 -3.7 -2.3 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 0.4 1.7 1.6 4.1 85.6 79.6 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 0.1 1.1 -0.6 4.2 83.7 79.7 -3.4 -2.0 -0.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 1.6 3.1 2.4 4.2 84.9 79.1 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 -0.7 0.3 -0.3 3.7 81.8 77.5 -4.6 -3.0 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 -1.7 -0.3 -1.1 4.4 83.5 78.9 -6.2 -4.4 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 0.9 2.0 2.3 3.8 83.3 78.0 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------