***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 4.1 3.8 4.8 -2.6 21.5 24.7 5.1 6.8 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.9 4.6 -2.7 19.7 22.7 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 4.4 4.2 5.0 -2.8 21.4 24.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 1.0 -3.2 17.2 19.1 0.1 2.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 4.1 3.5 3.2 -3.1 18.8 22.5 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 4.1 3.3 2.9 -2.8 19.3 24.6 5.2 7.0 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.2 3.0 4.6 -2.6 20.3 23.6 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 -1.0 -2.1 2.3 -3.5 13.6 18.5 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 4.9 4.4 4.2 -3.0 19.7 23.3 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 4.2 3.3 3.0 -3.4 16.2 20.6 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 4.2 3.3 3.8 -3.2 18.4 23.1 5.3 7.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 4.2 2.8 2.9 -3.4 14.5 19.9 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 4.4 3.2 4.0 -3.3 17.2 23.2 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 4.4 3.9 3.9 -3.5 17.3 20.3 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.7 3.7 3.5 -2.1 25.1 27.2 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 4.9 4.0 3.5 -3.1 19.4 24.4 5.9 7.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.1 -2.7 18.3 21.2 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 2.8 2.0 2.6 -3.6 15.0 19.2 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 3.3 3.0 4.7 -2.8 20.2 23.0 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 1.1 -0.2 2.0 -3.1 15.2 20.7 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 4.4 4.1 4.9 -2.8 21.0 24.3 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 3.1 2.8 4.3 -2.8 17.9 20.6 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.6 4.6 -2.9 20.5 23.3 5.0 6.6 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 5.1 4.6 4.0 -3.4 17.7 21.0 6.4 8.1 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.7 3.4 4.0 -2.7 21.7 24.6 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 4.8 4.0 3.2 -2.8 17.3 23.1 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.5 4.1 4.7 -2.5 22.8 26.0 5.4 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 3.5 3.2 2.1 -2.9 19.2 21.5 4.9 6.6 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 1.4 0.4 2.5 -3.3 15.8 20.6 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 3.5 3.2 4.7 -2.7 20.6 23.7 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------