***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 7.7 9.2 8.7 3.5 84.2 76.9 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 7.0 8.0 8.2 3.1 81.4 75.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 8.8 10.0 8.9 3.4 82.2 75.7 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 3.4 4.9 5.7 3.2 81.8 75.7 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 8.5 10.2 7.6 3.7 84.0 77.2 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 7.7 9.5 7.2 3.9 85.5 79.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 6.8 8.0 8.3 3.2 82.7 76.0 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 2.4 3.5 6.7 3.3 81.4 76.3 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 9.0 10.6 8.1 3.5 82.7 76.0 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 7.9 9.2 7.3 3.5 81.5 75.7 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 8.6 10.1 7.9 3.7 83.1 76.7 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 8.6 10.1 7.3 3.5 82.6 77.2 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 8.5 10.2 8.1 3.9 84.3 78.2 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 9.0 9.8 8.0 3.2 78.7 72.5 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 6.6 7.2 6.7 2.7 79.4 74.5 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 9.1 10.9 7.7 3.9 84.5 77.9 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 6.5 7.3 7.8 2.9 80.6 74.4 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 6.2 7.2 7.2 3.6 81.4 75.6 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 7.8 8.8 8.4 3.1 80.8 74.6 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 5.7 7.0 5.9 3.5 82.7 77.7 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 8.6 10.1 8.8 3.6 83.6 76.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 7.2 7.8 7.7 2.8 78.9 73.0 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 7.5 8.4 8.5 3.1 80.1 74.0 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 9.3 10.5 8.2 3.4 80.7 74.5 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 7.4 9.0 7.9 3.6 85.0 77.8 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 7.4 8.7 7.2 3.6 84.9 80.3 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.5 10.2 8.5 3.6 85.0 77.6 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 7.1 8.1 6.3 3.1 80.2 74.8 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 5.0 6.3 6.8 3.6 81.7 76.1 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 7.1 8.3 8.4 3.3 82.2 75.7 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------