***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 7.0 8.0 7.2 3.6 81.8 76.7 2.4 4.2 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 6.5 7.3 6.9 3.3 79.2 74.8 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 8.4 9.3 7.4 3.4 79.8 75.3 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 3.6 4.4 4.5 3.4 80.4 76.5 -1.7 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 7.6 8.5 5.7 3.5 80.8 76.5 3.1 4.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 7.6 8.6 5.6 3.6 81.9 77.0 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 6.2 7.1 6.9 3.3 80.4 75.5 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 1.6 2.5 5.5 3.4 80.6 75.9 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 8.6 9.5 6.5 3.5 80.3 75.9 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 7.6 8.6 6.1 3.5 80.7 76.0 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 7.9 9.0 6.0 3.6 81.6 76.7 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.7 5.9 3.5 81.5 76.6 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 8.0 9.3 5.8 3.7 83.0 77.6 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 9.0 9.8 6.9 3.4 78.6 74.1 3.5 5.8 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 6.3 6.6 5.0 3.0 77.7 74.6 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 8.6 9.8 5.8 3.7 82.6 77.4 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 5.7 6.4 6.7 3.1 78.6 74.1 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 5.2 6.1 6.2 3.6 80.7 75.9 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 7.4 8.1 7.1 3.3 78.8 74.5 2.4 4.4 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 4.9 6.0 4.6 3.2 79.8 75.0 0.6 2.4 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 8.2 9.0 7.0 3.4 80.3 75.8 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 6.6 7.1 6.6 3.0 77.4 73.3 2.1 4.0 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 7.0 7.6 7.4 3.3 78.3 74.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 8.2 9.1 6.9 3.5 80.0 75.5 3.7 5.5 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 6.6 7.5 5.9 3.5 82.0 77.2 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 7.2 8.5 5.6 3.5 83.9 78.6 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 8.0 9.3 6.9 3.6 82.8 77.4 3.4 5.3 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 7.9 8.7 4.9 3.3 79.3 75.7 2.6 4.7 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 5.0 6.1 5.8 3.5 80.7 75.9 0.2 2.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 6.6 7.4 7.0 3.4 79.8 75.2 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------