***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.5 11.5 78.2 55.7 48.5 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.8 10.8 81.4 57.4 51.2 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.1 11.1 77.8 55.3 47.8 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.1 16.7 20.5 107.6 66.3 58.5 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.5 13.4 85.6 58.1 50.0 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.3 9.2 13.9 87.9 59.3 54.3 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.1 10.9 81.8 57.6 51.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 14.5 15.7 15.1 86.0 58.6 52.2 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.3 12.2 82.5 57.4 49.1 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 11.5 11.5 13.1 81.8 56.6 49.6 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 10.9 12.8 14.4 91.3 60.7 52.6 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.2 15.7 15.0 92.0 61.2 53.8 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.7 13.1 15.2 90.5 60.3 53.4 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 9.7 10.5 64.8 48.8 42.5 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 22.5 26.0 25.2 130.1 73.0 65.4 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 9.8 11.7 15.1 90.3 60.7 53.8 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.2 11.4 89.6 60.1 53.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 11.5 10.8 12.0 73.4 53.1 48.3 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.5 10.7 78.7 56.1 49.7 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.9 16.7 77.6 55.6 51.7 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.0 12.3 81.1 56.9 49.4 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.3 9.0 11.4 86.7 58.7 52.5 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.5 10.4 74.4 53.5 46.6 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.7 9.8 10.7 70.6 51.8 45.4 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.7 14.0 83.9 57.6 50.3 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.3 11.1 15.8 94.7 61.9 54.8 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.3 12.1 78.8 55.6 48.4 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 10.5 15.5 19.6 108.9 66.8 59.3 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.4 14.1 13.1 73.1 53.1 48.8 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.2 10.7 78.6 56.2 49.5 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------