***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.4 14.1 94.8 59.7 52.6 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 12.6 100.3 62.6 53.3 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.3 13.8 91.3 58.2 50.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.2 13.5 20.1 115.1 67.5 57.7 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.9 16.2 94.9 59.0 50.2 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.8 15.5 102.7 62.7 53.3 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.9 12.2 97.5 61.4 53.1 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.8 17.0 97.9 60.7 51.8 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.3 14.6 87.3 55.9 47.7 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.5 15.0 87.3 56.0 48.2 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.1 15.4 93.1 58.7 50.3 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.3 16.0 99.3 61.6 52.6 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.7 16.0 96.8 60.5 51.0 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.4 10.9 15.7 87.0 55.7 46.6 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 12.6 14.1 22.2 130.0 72.7 62.2 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.1 16.0 100.6 62.1 52.3 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.3 8.9 12.3 101.8 63.2 54.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.6 15.1 84.6 53.9 46.6 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.9 13.2 99.9 62.2 52.8 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.6 22.4 98.7 61.3 52.6 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.6 14.3 88.4 56.8 49.5 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.8 13.2 104.0 63.8 54.4 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.2 14.0 96.5 60.3 50.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.4 14.5 83.4 53.5 46.1 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.0 17.2 99.5 61.1 54.7 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.7 11.4 19.4 115.2 67.6 57.0 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.9 15.0 96.1 60.3 53.6 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 9.9 19.6 117.5 68.5 57.9 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.4 17.1 89.7 56.7 48.9 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.6 13.1 99.6 62.3 53.6 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------