***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 14.1 12.4 101.8 64.5 54.9 5.3 9.3 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.8 12.7 118.8 70.1 57.8 4.0 7.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.3 15.1 12.4 102.0 64.8 55.3 4.6 9.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.3 15.2 15.4 109.9 67.0 57.3 6.4 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.2 14.5 14.2 102.2 64.2 54.7 5.8 9.8 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.3 14.1 111.2 67.0 54.7 4.1 7.5 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.2 12.3 117.3 69.6 57.5 4.5 7.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.0 21.4 16.7 114.1 67.9 55.8 11.0 15.5 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.6 14.1 97.5 62.5 53.4 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.6 15.9 15.5 104.4 64.7 54.1 6.6 10.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.1 14.1 104.8 64.8 53.9 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.7 14.7 112.6 67.3 55.3 5.8 9.2 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.4 14.6 110.5 66.6 55.1 7.4 11.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 19.2 14.9 103.6 64.6 54.8 6.6 12.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 17.2 17.0 121.1 70.9 58.6 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.3 13.8 107.8 65.8 54.6 5.8 9.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.7 12.9 124.8 71.6 58.6 3.6 6.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.4 16.0 106.5 65.3 54.4 5.8 10.0 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 14.3 13.4 12.5 114.0 68.6 57.2 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 22.2 21.5 22.6 121.4 70.1 57.6 7.6 12.7 19.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 13.1 12.9 95.1 61.9 53.4 5.0 9.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 11.9 12.2 13.5 125.7 71.9 59.0 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.7 12.4 105.9 66.1 56.0 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 17.1 14.1 101.1 63.9 53.8 6.0 11.1 18.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.0 13.7 97.2 62.4 53.5 3.8 7.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 16.5 124.9 71.2 58.0 5.7 9.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 13.1 12.6 98.6 63.1 53.3 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.9 14.9 112.6 68.0 57.1 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.1 27.2 17.6 111.4 66.9 55.4 11.6 18.4 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.8 12.7 115.3 69.1 57.5 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------