***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.9 13.0 106.7 65.8 51.3 3.3 6.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.9 11.4 105.9 65.4 49.7 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.3 15.4 13.3 110.0 67.0 52.0 5.1 9.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.8 15.1 15.4 110.8 67.6 53.3 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.2 15.5 14.2 105.1 65.3 51.8 5.8 10.2 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.4 12.5 98.0 63.3 49.9 5.6 9.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.3 11.0 105.5 65.2 48.6 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.5 18.2 14.4 101.8 63.6 50.9 8.3 13.2 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.1 14.8 107.0 65.7 51.6 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.2 15.0 104.8 64.5 51.0 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.8 14.9 13.5 104.3 64.8 51.8 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.2 12.7 13.2 104.2 64.8 51.7 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.4 13.2 101.8 64.3 50.9 4.9 8.9 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.0 18.4 16.1 111.7 67.1 52.4 7.7 12.3 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.9 17.5 17.1 124.2 71.8 54.9 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.7 13.1 102.3 64.5 51.6 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.9 11.1 103.7 64.9 48.9 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 15.7 106.2 64.8 51.0 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.3 11.8 105.6 65.3 50.4 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 13.2 18.2 98.7 62.4 50.2 6.3 9.9 14.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.3 14.0 107.4 66.0 51.6 5.2 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.9 11.5 101.0 63.8 49.3 4.3 7.9 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.6 12.7 104.7 65.0 50.5 4.1 7.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 14.0 15.2 111.3 66.9 52.3 5.0 8.8 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.7 15.0 14.4 104.6 65.2 51.7 5.3 9.7 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.5 13.1 13.9 109.2 67.0 51.4 4.4 8.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 13.3 13.3 104.9 65.1 51.2 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.4 14.8 111.4 67.9 53.3 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 18.6 16.3 103.3 63.7 50.7 7.8 13.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.6 11.9 108.1 66.2 50.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------