***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 43.1 39.6 51.0 94.5 53.1 49.9 27.1 37.6 49.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 40.1 40.3 47.6 100.4 57.8 52.7 27.1 35.7 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 52.8 49.2 50.6 94.3 52.9 49.3 35.2 47.0 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 53.7 60.2 71.3 110.8 64.4 58.7 36.6 48.4 61.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 53.1 50.5 58.0 96.5 53.8 49.6 37.2 47.9 59.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 44.3 43.0 56.0 99.4 55.9 51.5 30.3 39.5 49.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 41.7 41.7 46.4 99.3 57.0 52.1 27.7 37.3 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 68.2 63.2 99.2 55.9 51.5 51.8 63.8 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 43.7 40.1 55.7 93.1 51.0 47.7 30.6 39.4 49.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 54.0 49.9 58.6 94.0 51.5 48.2 38.7 49.0 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 52.3 50.6 57.4 97.8 55.0 50.4 37.6 47.6 58.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 53.1 53.3 58.9 101.3 57.7 52.7 37.7 48.1 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 52.1 50.7 59.0 99.2 55.7 50.8 36.9 47.0 58.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 65.9 59.2 57.2 90.7 49.0 45.6 48.2 60.0 72.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 73.1 80.4 81.5 126.8 72.5 65.8 32.9 49.5 69.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 47.8 46.9 57.9 99.6 56.3 51.2 31.7 42.5 54.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.5 43.7 47.7 104.0 60.2 54.1 28.4 37.6 47.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 50.5 45.6 58.9 91.8 49.3 46.5 36.9 45.8 55.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 44.8 44.1 48.2 98.5 56.3 51.5 30.1 40.1 51.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 58.1 55.3 79.8 98.3 55.2 50.2 38.4 51.0 65.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 48.8 43.6 53.5 92.4 50.8 47.9 32.1 43.1 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 43.9 45.2 49.5 103.4 59.7 53.8 29.8 39.1 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 42.8 41.0 49.4 94.6 53.2 48.7 30.2 39.1 48.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 58.5 52.9 54.6 90.6 48.8 45.9 43.6 53.7 64.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 44.4 42.4 59.3 95.9 53.5 50.5 29.2 39.9 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 47.9 52.2 65.6 110.4 64.3 58.0 34.0 43.3 53.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 46.4 42.7 52.9 94.0 52.3 49.6 30.2 41.0 53.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 48.8 56.5 68.9 112.6 65.2 58.9 31.5 43.5 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 79.7 73.2 64.0 93.5 50.9 47.2 58.7 72.4 86.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 42.1 41.8 48.5 99.2 56.9 52.3 27.4 37.4 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------