***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 3.4 3.0 3.5 -3.0 17.6 20.3 4.9 6.6 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 3.0 2.9 3.5 -2.5 21.2 23.9 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 3.6 3.1 3.2 -3.2 16.8 19.7 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -2.4 -4.0 -0.6 -4.3 9.3 11.7 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 3.2 2.1 1.0 -4.0 12.7 15.5 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.9 3.6 2.0 -2.8 23.0 27.0 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.2 3.2 3.8 -2.2 24.1 26.5 4.1 5.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 2.4 -2.2 27.3 30.3 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 4.1 3.3 2.2 -3.6 14.9 17.9 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.0 3.7 2.2 -3.0 20.8 24.1 5.3 7.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.5 1.4 -3.8 14.9 18.0 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 4.3 4.3 2.5 -2.5 24.4 27.9 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.4 4.5 3.3 -2.2 27.3 30.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.5 4.5 3.3 -2.6 23.4 26.2 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 2.2 0.6 0.6 -4.3 7.7 10.5 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 3.8 3.2 1.5 -3.6 16.7 19.8 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.9 3.5 -2.1 24.7 27.0 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 3.0 3.2 2.7 -2.4 25.9 29.0 3.9 5.5 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.7 3.4 -2.6 20.2 23.0 4.3 6.0 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.0 2.6 -1.1 37.9 40.0 2.4 4.4 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 3.4 2.7 2.6 -3.6 14.3 17.1 5.2 7.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.4 -2.2 23.7 26.4 4.2 5.8 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 3.5 3.3 3.4 -2.6 20.9 23.9 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.9 4.7 3.1 -2.9 21.6 24.6 6.1 7.9 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 2.7 2.1 1.9 -3.5 14.8 17.4 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.9 6.1 4.1 -0.9 38.9 41.0 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 3.6 3.3 3.3 -2.9 18.8 21.6 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 2.6 1.0 -0.1 -4.6 8.6 11.3 4.7 6.5 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.5 2.9 -1.6 33.1 35.5 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 3.0 2.8 3.6 -2.6 20.0 22.8 4.3 5.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------