***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.1 -1.1 36.8 40.3 3.2 4.9 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.4 3.1 -0.8 40.3 43.0 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.5 3.2 -1.0 38.2 41.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 0.4 -1.7 30.3 35.0 -1.4 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.7 1.2 -1.4 33.7 37.7 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.7 1.0 -1.1 37.8 41.1 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.2 3.0 -0.8 40.0 42.7 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.4 -1.2 1.4 -1.0 39.1 42.0 -1.8 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.5 2.2 -1.2 36.4 39.8 4.1 6.0 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.8 1.8 -1.0 38.3 41.3 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.9 3.9 1.4 -1.3 35.0 38.8 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.1 1.6 -1.1 37.2 40.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.6 3.9 1.4 -1.2 37.3 40.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.8 2.8 -0.8 41.4 43.1 3.8 5.9 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.5 -1.9 27.6 33.1 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.2 1.1 -1.4 34.6 38.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.2 2.9 -0.7 41.3 43.7 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.6 1.8 -0.8 40.9 43.2 1.8 3.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.2 -0.8 40.3 43.0 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.8 0.6 -0.6 42.6 44.9 0.7 2.6 4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.2 2.6 -1.2 36.0 39.6 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.0 -0.7 41.7 44.0 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.9 3.3 -0.8 40.5 42.9 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.0 2.7 -0.9 40.3 42.6 4.1 6.1 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.2 1.4 -1.4 33.6 37.8 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.7 1.6 -1.1 37.9 41.4 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.0 2.4 -1.2 36.0 39.6 3.6 5.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.4 2.6 0.5 -1.8 29.9 34.7 3.0 4.7 6.3 28 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.0 1.4 1.4 -0.7 42.3 44.4 0.4 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 3.4 3.1 -0.9 39.4 42.3 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------