***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.5 3.7 -0.5 43.1 44.2 3.8 4.9 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.3 3.6 -0.1 48.1 48.6 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.5 3.7 -0.5 43.4 44.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.6 -1.3 31.8 34.1 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.6 1.7 -1.0 35.8 37.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.6 1.7 -0.6 41.2 42.6 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 4.5 4.1 3.6 -0.1 48.9 49.2 3.2 4.2 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.3 2.1 -0.3 45.1 46.0 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.5 2.8 -0.7 39.5 41.0 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.0 2.5 -0.5 42.4 43.6 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.4 4.9 1.8 -0.9 36.9 38.9 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.3 2.2 -0.5 42.2 43.8 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.1 2.3 -0.5 42.8 44.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.1 3.6 -0.2 47.8 48.1 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.1 3.2 0.9 -1.5 29.3 32.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.3 1.6 -1.0 36.9 38.9 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 4.2 3.9 3.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.5 2.7 -0.2 46.7 47.3 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 5.2 4.8 3.7 -0.2 47.6 48.2 3.9 4.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.9 1.7 0.2 52.5 52.2 1.6 2.7 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.2 3.2 -0.7 39.6 41.0 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.6 3.6 0.0 50.7 50.7 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.2 4.8 3.8 -0.2 47.7 48.1 3.9 4.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.0 3.4 -0.3 45.6 46.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.0 2.0 -0.8 38.2 39.7 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.0 2.4 -0.2 47.3 48.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.2 3.1 -0.5 42.8 43.8 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.0 0.8 -1.5 30.6 33.1 4.1 5.1 6.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.7 2.4 0.0 50.6 50.6 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 4.8 4.3 3.7 -0.2 46.8 47.4 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------