***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 15.4 19.9 24.2 165.1 80.8 74.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.1 18.3 23.3 173.2 82.5 75.2 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 16.1 21.6 23.8 159.9 80.0 72.5 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 17.4 21.0 30.4 153.5 78.5 73.4 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.7 17.9 26.0 142.7 76.0 70.0 4.0 7.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.0 15.5 23.8 141.1 75.6 70.0 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 13.0 18.6 23.2 180.1 83.6 76.3 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 20.1 20.4 22.9 124.2 70.9 65.1 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 13.7 15.8 23.8 141.3 75.7 68.9 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.0 17.3 23.4 133.5 73.6 67.1 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 17.4 19.0 22.9 133.9 73.8 67.1 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.0 19.8 21.5 124.9 71.3 65.2 3.7 8.6 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 15.9 17.6 22.2 126.4 71.8 65.9 3.9 8.1 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 17.5 19.9 23.9 141.1 75.7 69.5 5.4 9.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 26.2 37.1 36.8 178.6 83.0 78.1 3.6 8.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 14.9 17.1 22.8 132.5 73.4 67.0 3.7 7.6 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 15.6 22.4 23.2 184.1 84.4 76.7 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 15.1 16.9 24.2 135.3 74.2 68.0 4.3 8.0 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 13.0 17.1 23.2 164.0 80.9 73.1 3.9 6.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 16.7 17.1 27.4 121.5 70.1 64.8 4.4 8.8 15.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.7 17.7 23.4 147.7 77.2 70.3 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 15.6 20.7 22.7 166.3 81.4 73.8 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.1 14.7 22.9 152.2 78.5 70.7 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.9 19.0 24.0 145.6 76.9 70.0 4.7 8.6 13.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 13.0 15.1 26.6 151.5 78.0 72.6 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 13.8 14.3 23.8 122.1 70.9 66.0 2.9 6.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 15.7 19.8 25.0 161.6 80.1 74.2 3.9 7.4 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 17.2 22.5 31.4 162.5 80.1 74.8 3.0 6.8 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 21.5 23.5 25.2 133.3 73.6 67.5 6.2 11.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 13.1 17.5 23.6 170.6 82.1 75.1 3.6 6.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------