***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.12.2014.-14.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.5 4.5 10.2 73.2 49.6 40.9 2.4 4.6 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.1 72.1 49.2 39.2 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 5.5 10.2 71.8 48.4 40.1 3.0 5.8 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.8 8.4 11.4 71.8 48.9 39.9 4.9 8.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.4 7.8 12.1 78.1 51.3 42.9 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.7 13.9 91.6 58.2 48.8 3.0 5.2 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.2 8.9 71.4 48.6 39.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.4 13.4 81.4 53.3 44.2 9.3 13.5 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.7 11.4 73.2 49.0 41.1 3.3 5.9 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.7 12.9 78.7 51.9 43.2 5.0 8.4 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.1 11.6 79.7 52.5 43.3 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.0 11.8 79.8 52.4 43.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.2 12.7 85.3 55.7 47.4 4.3 7.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.1 9.1 11.8 71.4 48.4 41.0 5.1 9.6 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.6 13.1 77.1 53.1 42.4 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.8 12.0 83.0 54.5 45.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.2 8.4 71.6 48.8 39.3 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.3 14.2 79.3 52.5 44.6 4.9 7.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.4 71.0 48.5 38.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.9 17.7 84.5 55.4 46.1 5.3 8.7 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.9 10.3 69.2 46.7 39.5 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.5 8.9 71.6 48.1 38.5 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.3 6.2 9.9 69.5 47.2 38.8 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.5 11.8 71.3 48.2 41.0 5.1 9.0 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.0 12.2 77.1 50.7 42.1 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.2 12.9 86.6 56.3 48.3 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.6 11.2 75.3 50.2 41.2 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.4 12.5 77.7 52.5 42.6 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 13.6 15.7 82.7 54.1 45.6 8.0 12.4 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.0 5.8 9.6 73.3 49.6 39.5 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------