***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.9 7.7 91.6 59.4 49.0 3.6 7.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.6 7.6 91.2 59.2 48.4 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.0 7.8 90.8 58.6 48.4 5.8 10.1 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.5 9.1 97.1 62.6 50.0 5.8 9.7 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.7 8.9 96.9 61.8 49.7 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.8 9.9 98.1 63.1 48.8 5.1 8.9 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.7 7.6 90.1 59.1 47.6 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 17.0 9.4 94.2 61.2 50.1 8.5 13.1 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.2 9.0 94.6 60.5 49.3 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.4 11.5 9.4 94.8 60.7 49.7 5.2 8.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.0 8.7 97.5 62.3 49.7 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.6 8.6 95.2 61.7 49.5 5.9 9.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.6 9.2 94.4 61.7 49.3 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.5 14.9 8.9 90.1 58.7 48.6 7.2 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.9 9.4 94.5 62.5 49.4 3.5 7.9 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.5 8.8 95.6 62.1 49.1 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.2 7.6 91.0 59.6 47.2 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 9.8 9.8 92.8 59.4 48.9 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.5 7.7 92.1 59.4 48.9 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 13.0 11.3 87.9 58.8 49.0 6.3 10.4 15.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.2 8.3 93.9 59.7 48.8 4.9 8.6 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.4 8.1 94.8 60.9 48.9 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.3 7.9 93.7 60.0 49.3 4.4 7.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.3 8.9 92.1 58.9 48.0 5.0 8.8 13.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.0 14.3 9.0 97.0 61.9 49.8 5.7 10.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.6 8.9 88.9 59.9 47.9 4.5 8.0 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.5 8.5 94.4 60.7 49.3 4.7 8.9 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.0 13.3 9.4 96.5 62.8 49.7 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 17.2 10.2 89.0 58.4 48.6 8.7 14.0 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.5 7.5 89.6 58.4 48.2 4.5 8.2 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------