***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-28.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 42.8 48.4 52.8 110.5 64.4 58.9 27.1 37.6 49.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 40.1 47.8 51.1 115.5 67.4 61.6 27.0 36.1 46.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 52.3 57.8 52.7 109.6 63.7 58.1 35.0 46.7 60.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 53.3 58.0 63.1 109.9 64.0 57.8 36.3 47.3 59.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 52.1 55.3 58.8 107.9 62.5 56.7 36.5 46.7 58.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 44.1 48.3 60.4 110.3 64.4 58.0 30.6 39.5 49.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 42.2 50.8 50.6 116.2 67.8 62.1 27.7 37.7 49.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 70.5 59.1 103.2 59.0 53.2 52.1 63.8 76.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 42.6 43.7 55.5 104.0 59.5 54.3 29.1 38.1 47.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 52.2 54.0 58.5 104.4 59.8 54.1 38.3 47.9 58.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 52.1 54.3 55.1 106.2 61.3 55.0 37.6 47.2 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 53.9 54.8 54.0 102.9 58.8 53.1 39.8 49.3 59.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 52.1 53.2 56.7 104.1 59.7 54.5 37.2 47.0 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 65.6 68.9 58.3 106.1 61.2 56.2 48.1 59.9 72.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 72.7 72.3 72.3 118.5 69.0 61.6 32.6 48.4 67.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 47.9 50.2 55.7 106.2 61.3 55.1 31.7 42.2 53.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 51.3 52.1 50.5 119.9 69.8 63.7 28.9 38.4 49.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 48.1 50.0 62.2 104.6 59.9 54.6 35.9 44.5 53.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 45.0 52.0 51.5 113.3 66.1 60.2 30.0 40.3 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 56.8 58.4 74.4 102.4 58.4 53.2 38.5 51.3 65.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 47.4 49.3 53.1 104.6 60.1 54.8 31.6 42.1 54.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 44.4 51.4 51.4 115.4 67.5 61.7 30.4 40.0 50.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 43.4 48.0 52.6 110.5 64.4 58.4 30.2 39.2 49.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 56.9 59.2 57.4 105.8 61.0 55.7 41.1 51.7 63.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 45.0 49.3 59.6 108.7 63.1 58.2 29.0 39.6 51.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 47.4 47.9 58.1 101.4 57.8 53.4 34.3 43.3 53.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 46.7 52.4 56.0 109.8 63.9 59.0 30.0 41.2 54.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.9 56.3 65.8 114.3 66.6 59.2 31.2 42.5 55.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 76.9 79.9 66.6 105.1 60.4 55.1 58.6 71.6 85.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 41.9 49.2 51.4 113.6 66.3 60.6 27.2 37.4 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------