***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 -2.5 -0.5 -2.0 23.5 28.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 -2.3 -2.9 -1.4 -2.4 20.6 25.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.6 -1.6 -2.7 16.5 22.7 0.0 1.3 2.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 -6.4 -7.6 -4.0 -2.8 14.0 21.4 -5.2 -3.6 -2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -3.5 -4.5 -3.4 -2.9 15.7 22.3 -2.5 -1.0 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -3.2 -3.4 -3.8 -1.8 28.2 33.2 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.2 -2.2 21.8 25.9 -1.7 -0.4 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 -7.0 -8.2 -4.9 -3.3 13.2 20.0 -6.1 -4.7 -3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 -2.3 -3.2 -2.9 -2.8 16.0 22.9 -1.5 -0.1 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -3.2 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 13.2 19.6 -2.1 -0.7 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 -3.3 -4.3 -3.8 -3.0 15.7 22.1 -2.3 -0.8 0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 -3.8 -4.9 -4.2 -3.1 15.6 22.2 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -3.0 -3.4 -3.3 -2.0 26.1 32.0 -2.6 -0.8 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 -2.2 -3.3 -4.0 -3.7 9.6 14.9 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 -3.1 -4.0 -2.8 -2.8 13.7 22.3 -2.0 -0.7 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 -2.4 -3.1 -3.8 -2.6 19.4 25.5 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -1.8 26.8 29.8 -1.9 -0.6 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 -4.8 -5.9 -5.1 -3.4 12.7 18.7 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 -2.2 -2.8 -1.7 -2.5 18.7 24.7 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -8.1 -9.4 -5.8 -3.0 16.3 22.7 -7.0 -5.0 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -2.5 -3.1 -1.6 -2.3 20.2 25.8 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 -2.1 -2.2 -1.0 -1.7 27.7 31.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 -2.5 -3.1 -2.2 -2.8 14.9 21.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 -2.7 -3.7 -4.0 -3.5 10.5 16.5 -1.5 -0.3 0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -1.7 -2.0 22.6 28.2 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -1.9 27.4 33.5 -2.1 -0.7 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.0 -1.9 24.9 29.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 -4.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.9 13.3 20.6 -3.1 -1.7 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 -5.2 -6.3 -5.4 -3.2 14.6 21.0 -4.3 -2.8 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -2.2 -2.9 -1.3 -2.5 19.1 24.6 -1.5 -0.1 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------