***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 -2.7 -2.5 -2.0 20.0 27.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -3.1 -3.4 -2.8 -1.9 21.5 28.9 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.1 -2.2 17.1 25.3 -0.6 0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 -6.6 -7.2 -6.0 -2.6 15.8 22.9 -5.9 -5.0 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 -3.5 -4.1 -5.6 -2.7 14.1 22.7 -2.8 -1.9 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -6.7 -2.5 16.2 25.7 -3.6 -2.6 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -2.7 -1.9 22.2 29.5 -2.6 -1.6 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 -8.1 -9.0 -7.0 -3.3 10.3 18.8 -7.3 -6.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 -2.7 -3.3 -4.7 -2.6 14.8 24.2 -2.1 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -3.4 -4.2 -6.3 -3.1 11.6 20.1 -2.6 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 -3.7 -4.5 -6.0 -2.9 12.3 21.5 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 -4.4 -5.3 -6.6 -3.3 10.2 19.7 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 -3.9 -4.9 -6.4 -2.9 12.7 23.4 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 -2.4 -3.3 -5.4 -3.0 11.0 19.0 -1.8 -0.9 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -5.0 -2.3 19.2 25.8 -2.8 -2.0 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -6.4 -2.9 12.8 22.4 -2.1 -1.1 -0.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -1.6 26.2 32.9 -2.8 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 -5.5 -6.5 -7.0 -3.1 11.1 18.5 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -3.0 -2.1 19.4 27.3 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 -8.3 -9.4 -7.7 -2.8 13.2 20.9 -7.4 -6.1 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 -3.5 -2.2 17.8 26.5 -2.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -3.2 -3.2 -2.6 -1.6 26.0 32.7 -2.8 -1.8 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 -3.1 -3.7 -3.6 -2.4 15.6 24.1 -2.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 -3.3 -4.1 -5.4 -2.9 11.5 19.5 -2.6 -1.7 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 -3.0 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 18.6 25.9 -2.4 -1.5 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 -3.8 -4.5 -5.8 -2.7 14.1 24.0 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -3.3 -2.1 19.7 27.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -4.4 -4.9 -5.7 -2.6 16.4 23.8 -3.8 -2.9 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -5.7 -6.5 -7.2 -2.9 12.6 19.8 -5.0 -4.1 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 -2.8 -3.2 -2.8 -2.0 19.8 27.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------