***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 95 5 0 100 9999.0 1.4 3.0 -3.6 12.8 15.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.7 2.8 -3.2 15.3 17.5 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 2.8 1.5 2.3 -4.2 9.9 12.1 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 -2.6 -4.2 -0.2 -4.2 8.9 10.4 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 2.8 0.9 0.5 -4.8 8.0 9.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 2.7 1.4 0.5 -4.4 10.6 13.3 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 2.2 2.0 3.1 -3.0 16.7 18.8 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 -2.2 -4.4 -0.1 -5.1 6.2 7.9 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 3.5 1.6 1.3 -4.8 8.0 9.7 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 2.9 0.8 0.3 -5.2 6.6 8.1 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 2.7 0.7 0.4 -5.0 7.5 9.1 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 2.9 0.7 0.3 -4.9 6.9 8.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 2.9 1.3 1.0 -4.6 9.4 12.3 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 3.1 0.9 0.9 -5.4 6.8 7.8 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 2.0 0.8 1.2 -3.7 9.4 11.3 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 3.1 1.2 0.4 -4.8 8.4 10.4 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 2.2 2.3 3.2 -2.5 20.6 22.4 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 -5.6 5.8 7.1 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 2.0 1.3 2.6 -3.6 13.2 15.3 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 0.0 -2.5 -0.9 -4.9 6.1 8.2 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 3.0 1.6 2.0 -4.4 9.5 11.6 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.7 3.1 -2.5 20.5 22.3 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 2.5 1.3 2.0 -4.2 9.9 11.7 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 3.4 1.1 0.8 -5.4 6.3 7.4 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 2.3 1.4 1.7 -3.9 11.6 13.7 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 3.7 2.4 1.2 -3.8 10.7 14.9 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 2.8 2.1 2.7 -3.6 13.0 15.3 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 2.3 0.8 0.3 -4.3 8.8 10.2 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 0.0 -2.6 -0.5 -5.3 5.7 7.3 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 2.1 1.5 2.8 -3.5 13.4 15.8 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------