***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 1.2 2.4 -2.4 23.9 30.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.6 -1.8 28.7 34.1 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.7 2.6 2.4 -2.4 24.4 31.0 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -2.5 -2.8 0.1 -2.5 22.6 29.9 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.4 1.9 0.4 -2.7 21.3 28.9 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.2 -0.2 -3.0 19.2 28.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.6 1.8 2.5 -1.9 28.6 34.1 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -2.9 -3.6 -0.3 -3.1 17.8 26.9 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.8 2.5 1.3 -2.6 23.1 30.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.1 1.5 0.3 -3.0 19.7 27.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.3 1.7 0.2 -2.9 19.6 27.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.2 0.0 -3.2 17.3 26.2 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.9 0.8 -0.3 -3.4 15.8 25.3 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 2.6 1.9 1.2 -2.9 20.8 27.8 3.7 5.7 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.3 2.4 0.9 -1.9 27.7 33.8 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 2.6 1.8 -0.1 -3.0 18.4 26.9 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.3 2.8 -1.3 34.0 38.1 2.2 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -3.4 17.3 26.0 1.9 3.4 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.1 2.3 2.5 -2.0 27.3 33.0 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -0.5 -1.8 -1.7 -3.6 14.5 25.5 0.8 2.6 4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.8 2.7 1.9 -2.4 24.4 31.3 3.7 5.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.8 -1.4 33.7 37.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 1.9 2.0 2.3 -2.3 24.6 30.8 3.0 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 2.6 2.0 1.1 -3.0 20.3 27.8 3.8 5.9 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.0 1.7 0.8 -2.6 21.8 29.5 3.0 4.6 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.0 0.8 -0.3 -3.5 13.7 24.1 3.1 4.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.4 2.2 1.6 -2.6 22.1 29.6 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.0 2.0 0.5 -2.2 25.0 31.7 3.0 4.7 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.9 -0.9 -3.6 15.4 25.2 0.3 2.0 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.9 2.5 -2.1 26.4 32.4 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------