***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 1.8 1.8 -2.2 27.7 33.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 1.8 1.7 -2.1 28.7 35.7 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.9 -2.1 28.4 34.3 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 -0.4 -2.2 26.9 33.1 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.4 2.4 0.1 -2.3 26.4 32.4 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.0 2.4 -0.2 -2.0 29.6 34.6 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.4 1.6 -2.1 28.2 35.3 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -0.2 -2.3 26.8 32.8 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.1 1.0 -2.2 28.2 33.6 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.4 0.4 -2.3 27.5 33.2 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.6 0.0 -2.4 25.8 31.6 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.3 2.4 -0.1 -2.4 25.3 31.2 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.3 -0.3 -2.4 25.6 31.3 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.2 -2.3 28.1 33.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.7 1.9 0.3 -1.8 30.1 35.7 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 2.7 2.9 -0.3 -2.4 25.6 31.3 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.3 1.6 1.7 -1.9 30.4 37.3 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 0.2 0.4 0.2 -2.4 27.1 33.2 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.2 1.8 -2.1 28.9 35.6 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -1.2 -2.3 26.8 33.7 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.1 1.5 -2.1 28.4 33.9 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.1 1.8 -1.8 31.4 37.9 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.1 1.8 -2.1 28.8 34.9 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.1 3.3 1.2 -2.3 27.9 33.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 2.1 0.5 -2.1 27.5 33.7 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.1 -0.3 -2.3 25.4 31.5 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 2.9 1.2 -2.1 27.4 33.7 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.1 -0.1 -2.1 28.3 34.0 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -2.4 26.4 33.1 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.7 1.7 1.7 -2.2 28.1 34.9 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------