***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 2.7 2.3 -0.1 48.6 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.3 1.9 -0.2 48.0 50.8 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.0 2.3 -0.1 48.6 51.2 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 50.9 52.3 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.7 0.9 0.1 50.8 52.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.6 0.8 0.5 54.6 54.9 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.0 1.8 -0.2 47.7 50.6 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.8 -1.0 0.9 0.2 52.5 53.5 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.7 1.9 0.2 51.9 53.2 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.0 1.4 0.2 51.8 53.2 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.1 1.0 0.2 51.5 52.8 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.2 1.0 0.2 52.0 53.0 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.9 0.8 0.2 52.4 53.4 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.4 2.1 -0.1 49.2 51.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.5 0.8 0.3 53.5 53.9 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.5 0.7 0.2 51.9 53.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.9 1.9 -0.1 48.7 51.2 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.2 1.3 0.1 50.6 52.5 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.8 2.1 -0.2 48.1 50.7 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.6 0.1 0.2 52.4 53.5 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.0 2.2 0.1 50.7 52.5 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.6 2.1 -0.1 49.3 51.3 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.7 2.3 -0.2 48.2 50.8 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 2.0 0.0 49.7 51.9 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.8 1.1 0.1 50.9 52.7 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.3 0.7 0.3 53.3 54.0 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.6 1.7 -0.1 49.5 51.8 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.4 0.6 0.2 52.3 53.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 50.7 52.4 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.4 2.0 -0.2 47.8 50.6 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------