***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 3.3 2.4 -2.1 19.9 27.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.3 -1.8 23.2 30.6 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 4.0 3.6 2.2 -2.2 18.7 26.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.1 -2.2 18.6 25.3 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 3.6 3.1 0.5 -2.4 16.5 23.9 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.3 2.8 0.3 -2.2 18.6 25.8 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.7 2.4 2.3 -1.8 23.5 30.7 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -1.8 -2.4 0.1 -2.5 14.2 22.3 -1.1 -0.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 4.2 3.7 1.4 -2.3 17.4 25.1 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 3.5 2.9 0.6 -2.6 14.8 22.7 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 3.7 3.0 0.4 -2.5 15.1 22.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.0 0.3 -2.6 14.2 21.9 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 3.5 2.8 0.3 -2.5 14.9 22.5 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.5 1.3 -2.7 14.9 22.7 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.8 2.8 0.8 -1.8 23.3 29.1 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 4.1 3.4 0.2 -2.5 15.4 22.8 4.9 6.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 2.5 2.4 -1.5 27.8 34.6 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.2 0.3 -2.8 12.6 21.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 2.9 2.2 -2.0 21.8 29.3 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -2.6 12.7 21.7 1.6 2.6 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 3.9 3.6 1.9 -2.2 18.6 26.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.2 3.1 2.5 -1.4 28.2 34.9 3.4 4.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.2 2.7 2.1 -2.2 19.1 26.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 4.0 3.4 1.3 -2.7 14.4 22.4 5.1 6.2 7.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.0 2.7 1.0 -2.1 19.1 26.2 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 3.3 2.7 0.3 -2.3 15.6 23.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.8 3.4 1.8 -2.1 19.4 26.8 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 3.5 3.2 0.3 -2.1 20.3 26.7 4.1 5.1 6.0 28 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -2.8 12.0 20.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 2.5 2.3 -2.0 21.3 28.8 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------