***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 7.5 11.5 83.1 56.0 46.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.8 9.2 73.9 51.2 42.9 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.5 12.5 89.1 58.6 49.9 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.5 15.7 91.2 59.0 50.3 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.9 11.5 16.0 99.9 62.4 54.3 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.5 16.1 111.1 67.3 61.0 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.5 8.8 70.4 49.8 42.2 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.5 17.3 18.1 115.3 67.9 61.7 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.1 15.6 103.1 63.5 54.7 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.9 13.3 17.4 111.5 66.6 59.3 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 9.6 13.2 16.3 110.5 66.6 59.1 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.3 15.4 16.9 115.4 68.2 62.0 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 13.8 14.1 18.1 118.9 69.3 63.6 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 14.9 92.2 58.6 50.8 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.7 15.3 82.2 56.4 46.9 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 8.9 11.9 16.7 110.4 66.6 59.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.7 7.8 66.4 46.7 39.6 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 11.3 17.9 105.6 64.3 57.5 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.3 10.2 78.8 53.2 44.6 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.2 12.1 19.7 101.7 62.7 57.5 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.5 14.2 98.2 62.3 53.1 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.1 8.6 69.2 46.3 39.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.8 12.0 85.5 56.3 47.9 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.4 15.5 96.9 60.8 52.9 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.0 13.6 84.3 55.8 47.3 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 12.3 13.2 19.1 121.4 70.3 65.9 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.9 11.9 81.3 54.7 45.8 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.8 16.2 96.1 61.3 52.2 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.8 15.8 18.8 104.5 64.0 57.7 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.7 10.1 77.2 53.4 44.8 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------