***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2013.-15.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 5.1 10.3 90.3 58.6 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.7 8.1 8.7 81.4 55.9 44.5 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.5 10.0 84.8 56.5 47.2 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.4 9.4 71.6 51.4 42.7 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.0 10.7 81.5 54.6 46.7 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.1 11.1 84.6 56.3 45.6 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.1 8.7 80.9 55.5 44.5 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.2 15.1 11.5 86.0 56.7 47.0 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.6 11.6 87.6 57.2 48.8 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.8 12.4 91.6 59.0 50.2 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.2 10.1 83.1 55.3 46.2 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.9 8.7 10.0 81.7 54.7 44.9 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.5 11.2 88.4 57.3 46.8 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.2 12.3 91.5 59.3 49.1 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.2 8.2 56.8 44.8 34.4 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.7 9.8 79.7 53.7 44.6 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.4 7.9 79.0 55.2 43.4 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.9 14.1 97.5 61.0 51.9 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.9 9.0 82.6 56.2 45.0 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.4 11.2 14.9 91.2 58.5 47.4 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.7 11.0 88.8 58.1 49.2 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.6 8.6 80.5 55.5 43.4 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.8 9.9 85.0 56.5 45.8 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.9 12.3 91.4 58.9 49.7 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.0 11.5 89.7 58.2 49.1 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.8 10.5 82.8 55.4 44.0 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.8 11.2 92.5 59.6 49.8 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.6 8.3 61.4 46.5 37.9 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.3 17.3 15.0 98.3 61.5 51.4 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.9 9.1 82.7 55.8 45.1 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------