***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2013.-22.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 5.2 7.3 65.5 46.8 38.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 5.5 6.3 55.9 43.0 35.5 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.0 8.2 7.2 62.9 45.0 36.5 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.8 9.4 7.7 65.9 46.6 35.7 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.0 10.0 8.1 69.7 47.6 37.5 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.9 8.6 9.2 70.6 48.5 37.2 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.0 6.1 6.3 57.6 44.0 36.4 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.8 12.7 8.9 68.2 47.5 37.0 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.9 8.4 70.1 47.3 38.2 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.2 9.0 8.9 69.9 47.4 37.9 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.3 7.7 7.9 69.4 47.8 37.3 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.5 8.1 69.3 48.4 37.1 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 6.4 11.1 8.9 72.0 49.8 38.2 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.9 9.3 8.2 58.9 41.8 35.1 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.8 6.9 56.7 45.0 33.4 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.7 9.7 8.2 71.0 49.5 37.9 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.8 6.1 6.1 55.6 43.4 35.6 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 7.4 9.6 66.8 45.6 37.1 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.9 6.4 56.2 42.8 35.3 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.7 9.8 11.0 63.4 46.1 36.4 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.4 8.7 7.9 69.2 47.2 38.1 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.0 4.4 6.2 54.1 41.5 34.8 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.2 6.9 57.3 42.5 35.3 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.9 7.7 8.4 63.6 44.2 36.3 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.6 7.9 8.1 68.1 47.3 38.0 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.6 8.0 8.0 64.4 46.9 36.2 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.2 7.8 66.8 47.0 38.6 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 4.6 7.7 7.6 64.5 47.1 35.3 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.2 13.1 10.1 64.5 44.5 35.9 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.9 6.0 6.5 58.7 44.1 36.2 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------