***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 8.5 7.8 85.9 56.5 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.8 9.7 7.4 81.2 55.4 43.0 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.9 12.2 8.0 82.6 55.0 44.2 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.4 10.7 8.2 78.9 52.9 41.4 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.7 10.4 8.1 75.2 51.1 41.5 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.3 8.1 7.8 69.1 49.2 39.1 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.4 7.2 81.1 55.4 43.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.8 12.7 8.9 72.4 49.2 39.9 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.2 6.5 8.3 75.2 50.7 41.7 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 7.8 8.9 73.1 49.4 40.6 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.7 8.7 7.7 71.4 49.1 40.1 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.1 7.9 72.0 49.6 40.4 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.5 7.9 70.8 49.9 40.8 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 12.7 9.3 80.3 52.5 41.6 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 9.5 7.9 78.2 54.4 40.4 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.8 7.6 71.9 50.3 40.7 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.0 7.4 81.5 55.7 42.5 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 7.1 9.9 75.8 50.0 40.6 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 9.6 7.6 80.4 54.9 42.8 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.0 9.7 11.8 77.7 50.7 39.8 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.7 9.5 8.3 82.6 54.5 44.4 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.2 7.8 82.5 56.4 43.1 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.0 7.9 79.2 53.4 42.1 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.1 9.6 9.0 77.6 51.5 41.5 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.3 11.9 8.7 84.2 55.8 44.5 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 6.1 7.2 63.0 44.9 36.6 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.5 10.6 8.3 84.2 55.9 44.9 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.6 8.0 77.6 53.3 40.9 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 13.6 10.6 76.3 50.0 40.1 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.5 7.5 81.8 55.4 43.6 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------