***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-29.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 24.6 36.9 81.2 41.3 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 26.0 27.9 31.6 72.6 35.0 35.4 26.7 35.6 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 34.3 39.6 37.6 80.3 40.3 38.9 35.0 46.4 58.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 35.0 39.5 41.0 78.2 38.7 37.5 36.3 46.6 58.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 37.0 42.7 42.8 83.2 41.7 40.2 38.2 47.1 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 28.8 35.8 44.1 85.1 44.2 42.4 30.3 38.8 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.3 28.4 31.0 72.0 34.1 34.8 27.8 37.7 48.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 50.1 59.5 47.3 87.1 44.7 42.7 51.8 62.8 74.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.2 34.0 43.9 85.4 43.6 41.4 28.8 37.1 46.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 36.1 44.0 47.6 88.0 45.3 43.1 37.6 46.5 55.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 35.4 42.5 42.1 85.5 43.8 42.0 36.8 45.7 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 37.3 44.3 42.9 86.5 45.1 43.0 38.4 46.7 55.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 35.4 44.9 46.0 89.7 48.2 45.5 36.6 46.0 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 46.7 51.8 44.7 81.2 38.5 37.8 48.1 59.6 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 27.9 30.7 38.2 69.1 33.7 33.1 30.1 44.6 62.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 29.9 37.8 42.4 85.3 44.3 42.3 31.5 41.1 51.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 27.8 29.0 29.2 69.9 32.9 33.6 29.2 38.1 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 34.4 40.7 51.5 87.5 44.3 42.1 35.4 43.4 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 28.7 31.4 33.3 74.3 35.9 36.1 29.7 39.7 51.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 35.1 43.8 57.4 84.1 42.2 40.4 37.7 49.4 62.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 31.8 39.1 41.4 85.7 44.9 42.2 32.5 41.9 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 28.2 30.3 31.1 70.9 32.7 33.5 30.5 39.7 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 28.3 31.7 36.6 77.0 36.7 36.8 29.8 38.6 48.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 39.6 45.6 45.3 83.3 41.0 39.6 41.1 51.1 61.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 29.1 34.5 41.9 81.9 41.4 39.8 29.8 39.5 50.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 32.3 39.7 44.8 85.7 45.5 43.2 33.3 42.0 51.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 29.9 35.0 39.3 81.2 40.9 39.8 30.2 40.9 53.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 27.9 32.4 40.2 76.3 37.9 36.8 29.5 39.9 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 55.0 65.7 54.5 86.8 43.8 41.4 58.2 69.7 82.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.3 29.2 33.1 74.9 36.7 36.6 27.2 37.2 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------