***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.0 5.8 6.8 -0.5 42.8 43.9 4.7 6.5 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 6.0 4.7 6.4 -0.7 40.6 41.6 3.9 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 7.2 6.2 7.2 -0.4 44.7 45.5 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.6 1.2 4.1 -0.5 43.6 45.0 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 7.3 6.3 5.9 -0.4 44.9 46.1 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.4 5.2 -0.2 48.1 48.8 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.9 4.5 6.2 -0.7 39.8 40.6 3.9 5.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.0 5.2 -0.5 44.2 45.4 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.0 6.6 -0.5 44.2 45.6 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.4 6.3 5.8 -0.4 45.1 46.2 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.4 6.1 6.3 -0.6 43.6 45.1 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.3 5.5 -0.6 42.3 43.9 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.5 6.3 6.4 -0.5 44.2 45.4 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.1 6.4 6.5 -0.8 40.9 42.0 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.2 5.8 -0.3 45.2 46.9 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.0 6.7 5.8 -0.5 44.2 45.5 5.4 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.6 3.9 5.7 -1.0 36.7 37.6 3.6 5.0 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.8 5.6 -0.3 46.7 47.4 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 6.3 4.9 6.6 -0.7 40.9 42.0 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.5 4.9 0.2 52.3 52.4 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 7.3 6.4 7.3 -0.4 45.2 46.2 5.1 6.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.2 4.5 6.0 -1.0 36.9 38.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.5 5.1 6.6 -0.8 40.4 41.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 8.3 7.1 6.7 -0.5 43.8 44.8 5.8 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 6.1 5.2 6.2 -0.5 43.9 44.9 4.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.5 5.4 -0.3 46.0 47.0 5.3 6.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.1 6.0 6.6 -0.5 43.6 44.5 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.9 5.7 5.0 -0.5 43.9 45.5 4.5 6.3 8.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.0 5.2 -0.2 47.5 48.2 2.4 4.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 6.0 4.9 6.7 -0.6 42.5 43.4 4.0 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------