***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.6 6.4 2.3 73.5 67.6 2.3 4.1 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.3 6.2 2.0 70.7 66.0 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.3 6.8 2.2 72.2 66.7 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.7 3.3 4.0 2.2 73.0 67.3 -1.3 0.6 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.6 5.0 2.2 72.7 67.0 3.2 5.1 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.4 4.8 2.5 75.2 69.1 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 5.6 6.0 6.2 2.1 71.6 66.5 1.9 3.7 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 0.8 1.2 4.8 2.2 73.0 67.3 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.5 5.8 2.3 72.7 66.6 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.5 5.3 2.3 73.1 67.0 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.5 8.0 5.2 2.3 73.6 68.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.3 5.1 2.3 73.6 68.1 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.6 8.0 4.6 2.3 73.7 68.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 8.6 9.0 6.3 2.3 72.1 65.7 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.9 4.8 2.1 72.2 67.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.6 4.9 2.4 74.4 68.7 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.6 6.1 1.9 70.5 65.5 1.9 3.6 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.9 5.3 5.4 2.4 73.3 66.9 1.0 2.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 6.9 7.1 6.4 2.1 70.5 65.7 2.7 4.7 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 4.4 4.6 3.7 2.0 71.5 66.1 0.5 2.3 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.2 6.3 2.3 72.8 66.8 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.3 6.2 1.9 70.0 65.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.8 6.8 2.1 70.7 65.6 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.4 6.2 2.4 72.9 66.6 3.9 5.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.6 5.2 2.3 73.7 67.3 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.8 4.5 2.2 73.7 68.7 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.5 8.2 6.1 2.4 74.4 67.9 3.6 5.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.7 4.5 2.3 73.1 67.5 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 4.7 4.9 4.9 2.2 72.6 66.5 0.5 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.4 6.2 2.1 71.4 66.5 2.3 4.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------