***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.9 4.4 1.0 59.8 57.8 2.0 3.8 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.5 4.3 1.0 59.6 57.6 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.2 4.8 1.1 60.0 57.8 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.9 1.4 2.2 1.3 62.7 59.8 -1.4 0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.8 3.1 1.1 61.1 58.4 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.1 2.7 1.0 60.1 58.1 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.3 4.3 1.0 59.4 57.4 1.4 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.6 -0.4 2.9 1.0 59.8 57.6 -2.6 -1.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.6 3.8 1.0 59.8 57.1 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.8 3.4 1.0 59.5 57.0 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.2 3.2 1.1 61.3 58.6 2.9 4.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.1 3.1 1.0 60.6 58.3 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.8 2.7 1.0 60.5 58.3 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.4 4.3 0.9 57.8 55.5 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.4 3.1 1.3 62.9 60.2 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.5 2.9 1.2 61.6 58.9 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.7 4.0 4.3 0.9 59.0 56.9 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.9 3.4 0.9 58.3 56.1 1.4 3.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.1 4.6 1.0 59.8 57.8 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.0 2.2 2.0 0.8 58.2 56.5 -0.5 1.4 3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.0 4.3 1.0 59.9 57.4 3.0 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.7 4.4 1.0 59.4 57.3 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.9 4.9 1.0 59.5 57.2 2.0 3.9 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.6 4.1 0.9 58.6 56.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.7 3.2 1.1 60.7 58.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.1 2.6 1.0 61.2 59.2 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.8 4.0 1.0 59.6 57.6 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.5 2.6 1.3 62.5 59.6 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.2 3.0 0.8 58.0 56.1 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.6 4.3 1.0 59.8 57.8 1.7 3.6 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------