***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 12.7 15.7 18.1 148.3 77.4 69.8 4.2 7.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 11.1 14.7 17.9 165.0 80.9 73.8 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.7 19.2 18.5 155.3 79.0 71.4 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 11.4 16.5 104.3 64.6 53.9 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.0 14.2 17.2 120.5 69.6 61.7 4.5 8.0 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.7 13.4 97.4 61.7 54.0 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 10.8 13.9 17.4 158.2 79.5 72.2 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 17.9 18.5 19.0 122.6 70.3 62.0 5.8 10.3 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.2 13.5 17.6 131.1 72.9 64.3 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.6 16.0 19.0 129.1 72.3 64.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.8 17.7 121.5 70.0 61.7 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.7 16.6 17.6 123.3 70.5 61.6 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.7 17.3 111.5 66.5 59.4 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 17.5 23.3 24.0 165.9 81.6 73.9 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 11.6 14.6 96.5 63.1 48.4 2.6 6.6 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.3 12.1 16.6 112.3 67.0 58.8 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.7 17.3 18.0 173.3 82.5 75.5 3.5 6.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 13.2 16.3 21.4 144.2 76.7 68.0 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.1 15.9 18.4 166.8 81.2 74.1 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.6 22.4 125.9 71.4 62.9 4.6 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 8.7 15.7 18.2 140.1 75.4 66.6 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 14.2 19.4 18.8 174.4 82.6 75.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.2 16.2 19.8 168.9 81.7 74.3 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.0 19.6 21.2 155.4 79.4 70.9 4.7 8.4 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 7.0 11.3 18.4 128.2 72.2 64.6 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.6 10.5 15.6 103.1 63.6 54.6 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.3 14.7 18.2 139.9 75.3 68.1 3.8 6.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.8 9.7 15.3 102.2 64.3 52.3 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 18.6 22.2 22.2 142.3 76.1 67.4 6.1 10.6 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 11.2 14.1 17.9 158.5 79.6 72.4 3.5 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------