***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.12.2019.-15.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.5 11.5 16.1 125.9 71.9 60.6 3.1 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.7 14.5 14.2 135.4 74.3 62.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.0 13.5 15.7 123.2 71.1 59.4 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.4 14.9 101.9 64.6 54.8 5.4 9.2 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.0 16.7 112.2 67.7 58.5 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.7 13.6 102.3 64.4 55.0 3.0 5.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 14.1 16.3 14.0 136.7 74.6 62.5 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 19.2 17.1 115.4 68.6 60.6 9.0 13.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.1 10.4 16.5 114.4 68.4 57.9 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.6 17.3 116.7 69.0 60.3 5.5 8.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.5 16.2 113.0 67.9 60.3 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.7 15.5 111.3 67.4 60.3 4.9 7.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.1 17.0 115.4 68.8 61.4 4.6 7.2 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.7 21.8 19.0 126.0 71.8 61.1 6.5 11.7 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.0 13.0 14.1 105.6 66.6 57.1 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.2 15.7 110.6 67.1 59.2 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.4 15.0 13.4 137.2 74.6 62.1 4.0 7.1 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 13.7 18.4 122.4 70.8 61.3 5.2 8.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.3 17.4 14.7 134.1 74.0 62.9 4.2 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 14.7 16.5 24.5 131.6 73.3 64.3 5.4 9.0 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.6 16.0 115.8 68.8 56.5 4.2 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.8 16.8 14.2 137.7 74.8 63.7 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 15.9 15.3 127.6 72.3 60.9 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.6 18.3 17.9 123.8 71.3 60.7 5.8 10.0 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.2 17.3 116.3 68.9 58.0 3.3 5.6 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.2 12.3 16.7 114.8 68.4 60.6 4.6 7.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.4 12.2 16.7 123.9 71.2 60.2 3.7 6.7 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.1 9.8 13.6 98.5 63.9 55.0 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 20.5 22.6 21.1 130.0 72.8 63.7 8.4 13.2 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 14.3 15.9 14.6 131.7 73.4 61.7 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------