***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.12.2019.-22.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.5 13.5 108.9 66.2 51.7 4.8 8.2 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.5 12.2 117.9 69.2 51.4 4.1 6.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.4 14.8 12.9 108.1 65.8 50.5 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.6 14.5 14.6 106.0 65.2 50.7 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.6 14.8 14.0 100.1 62.5 50.0 6.4 10.7 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.2 13.6 105.5 64.6 51.3 5.4 9.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.8 11.5 112.7 67.6 51.3 4.5 7.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 17.5 13.6 93.9 60.2 48.6 8.5 13.6 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.0 13.9 95.6 60.5 48.3 5.2 8.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.8 13.8 93.3 59.7 48.1 5.5 9.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.7 13.3 99.6 62.3 50.1 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.5 13.1 100.0 62.6 50.3 4.3 7.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.1 16.0 14.7 107.7 65.5 53.1 7.1 11.1 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.0 17.1 15.0 105.3 64.7 50.2 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.7 14.8 114.2 68.5 51.7 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.3 14.4 14.1 108.6 65.8 52.8 6.3 9.9 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.8 11.6 115.5 68.5 51.1 4.4 7.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.5 13.8 92.0 59.0 47.1 4.6 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.3 12.8 119.7 69.8 51.5 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.3 16.5 91.0 59.1 48.0 6.2 11.0 17.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.5 13.7 101.5 63.1 49.6 5.6 9.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.6 12.9 123.8 71.1 52.3 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.0 13.5 118.3 69.2 50.8 3.7 6.5 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.8 13.4 97.7 61.6 47.9 5.0 9.5 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.3 14.9 103.7 64.2 50.7 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.3 14.2 105.2 65.1 52.1 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 12.8 14.0 105.9 65.0 51.1 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.2 12.0 13.8 107.5 66.0 51.2 5.3 8.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.9 19.9 14.4 91.5 58.8 47.3 8.8 15.4 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.9 12.5 115.8 68.6 51.3 4.4 7.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------