***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.2 10.4 90.8 58.9 46.6 3.9 7.5 12.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.0 11.3 9.3 93.8 60.9 46.6 4.8 8.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.3 13.6 10.4 91.6 59.4 46.1 6.2 10.6 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.3 12.1 96.1 61.5 48.7 6.0 9.9 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.9 13.4 11.8 94.9 60.5 49.7 6.1 10.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.2 11.5 97.1 62.3 53.0 4.5 8.3 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.5 9.0 94.3 61.3 47.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.0 12.9 96.8 61.6 52.1 8.2 12.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.7 12.2 94.7 60.1 49.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.7 12.8 95.7 60.6 50.9 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.8 11.6 95.8 61.0 51.2 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.8 11.8 97.9 62.1 52.6 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.0 12.4 12.2 98.3 62.0 52.6 4.6 8.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.3 16.5 13.6 99.5 62.2 49.9 6.9 11.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.1 13.7 11.7 96.9 63.6 48.7 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.9 11.6 96.8 61.4 51.8 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.5 8.9 93.4 61.1 46.9 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.4 13.1 94.3 59.9 50.3 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.5 9.7 94.1 60.8 46.4 4.4 8.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 13.0 16.3 95.5 61.1 51.7 5.3 9.5 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.2 10.9 11.6 94.0 59.8 48.2 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.3 9.4 91.8 60.1 46.5 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.2 10.7 95.9 61.1 47.0 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.0 12.2 94.4 60.0 48.6 5.5 9.2 14.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.2 13.4 12.1 93.9 59.8 48.3 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.4 12.5 103.4 64.6 53.7 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.0 11.6 10.9 90.9 58.6 47.3 4.7 8.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 12.9 11.3 95.5 62.1 49.5 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.7 14.1 95.1 60.4 51.1 8.3 13.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.1 9.6 93.0 60.5 46.4 4.4 8.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------