***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-29.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 52.2 52.2 58.1 118.9 69.3 63.1 27.6 37.6 49.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 48.1 51.7 53.6 128.8 73.8 66.7 26.7 35.6 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 61.7 62.5 57.5 119.9 69.8 63.1 35.0 46.4 58.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 51.9 52.7 58.1 102.3 58.8 54.2 36.3 46.6 58.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 51.1 54.2 59.7 107.4 62.2 57.3 38.2 47.1 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 42.4 42.6 52.1 100.6 57.1 52.7 30.3 38.8 48.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 51.6 54.6 52.0 126.6 72.7 65.7 27.8 37.7 48.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 67.6 71.5 62.5 107.7 62.4 57.2 51.8 62.8 74.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 41.3 44.4 60.2 108.9 63.3 57.4 28.8 37.1 46.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 50.7 54.2 62.9 108.9 63.3 57.6 37.6 46.5 55.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 49.5 53.2 58.9 108.2 62.7 57.7 36.8 45.7 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 50.3 54.1 58.0 108.7 63.2 58.0 38.4 46.7 55.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 49.6 54.1 61.3 108.7 63.1 58.4 36.6 46.0 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 75.5 78.9 71.6 124.6 73.1 66.1 48.1 59.6 72.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 52.8 55.1 55.2 103.0 60.2 54.8 30.1 44.6 62.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 45.1 49.0 58.0 107.5 62.3 57.6 31.5 41.1 51.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 50.1 54.6 51.9 130.6 74.6 66.9 29.2 38.1 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 46.8 52.0 66.8 113.5 66.7 59.8 35.4 43.4 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 54.1 58.4 55.6 129.3 74.1 67.4 29.7 39.7 51.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 54.9 61.7 79.6 111.6 65.3 59.1 37.7 49.4 62.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 46.0 52.2 59.5 113.0 66.0 59.3 32.5 41.9 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 51.9 57.2 55.4 132.4 75.4 68.3 30.5 39.7 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 51.4 54.5 59.3 128.2 74.0 67.1 29.8 38.6 48.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 64.1 64.6 64.8 118.1 69.4 62.4 41.1 51.1 61.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 44.0 49.7 62.8 111.0 64.7 59.3 29.8 39.5 50.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 45.7 49.0 59.1 106.8 61.7 57.5 33.3 42.0 51.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 55.6 54.5 59.7 115.7 67.5 61.7 30.2 40.9 53.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 45.4 45.9 54.0 101.1 58.4 53.7 29.5 39.9 51.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 75.1 83.9 71.8 115.1 67.9 60.7 58.2 69.7 82.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 51.6 54.0 54.5 125.5 72.3 65.5 27.2 37.2 48.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------