***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 -2.1 -0.4 -2.4 24.4 25.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 -3.2 -3.0 -1.2 -2.6 22.2 23.6 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -2.5 23.5 24.6 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -6.4 -6.0 -2.6 -2.0 27.7 28.6 -5.4 -3.8 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -3.6 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 26.3 27.2 -2.7 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -3.4 -3.4 -3.5 -1.8 30.7 32.0 -3.2 -1.7 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -1.1 -2.5 23.5 24.8 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -7.7 -7.7 -4.2 -3.1 19.2 20.7 -6.4 -5.0 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -2.0 28.3 29.3 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -3.4 -3.0 21.3 22.7 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 -3.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.3 26.3 27.3 -2.4 -1.0 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 -4.0 -3.9 -3.1 -2.5 23.8 25.1 -3.0 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 -3.5 -3.4 -2.9 -2.2 26.8 28.1 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 -2.0 -2.3 -3.0 -3.3 17.3 19.5 -1.0 0.1 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -2.1 -0.9 -1.2 35.0 35.9 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -2.5 -1.9 30.1 31.1 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 -1.6 -2.7 21.5 22.9 -2.2 -0.9 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 -5.0 -5.1 -4.4 -3.3 18.7 20.4 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 -1.2 -2.5 22.7 24.2 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 -9.1 -9.5 -6.0 -3.8 15.4 17.3 -7.1 -5.3 -3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 -2.8 -2.6 -0.9 -2.2 26.0 26.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 -3.1 -3.1 -1.7 -2.8 20.8 22.3 -2.1 -0.8 0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 -2.4 23.9 25.4 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 -2.8 -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 20.2 21.9 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 -3.0 -2.6 -1.4 -2.4 24.1 25.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2 -2.7 22.1 23.6 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 -0.9 -2.3 25.2 26.3 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -3.7 -3.5 -1.9 -1.7 30.5 31.4 -3.3 -2.0 -0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 -5.8 -6.1 -5.1 -3.4 17.5 19.6 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 -3.0 -2.7 -0.9 -2.5 23.2 24.5 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------