***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 -2.6 -1.9 -0.9 40.0 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.6 -1.0 38.2 44.6 -3.5 -1.9 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -1.0 -2.4 -1.0 37.9 44.6 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -7.3 -7.1 -5.0 -1.8 30.0 42.5 -6.8 -5.2 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -4.1 -3.8 -4.6 -1.6 31.6 42.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -4.2 -5.6 -1.4 34.7 45.5 -4.3 -2.9 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -3.8 -2.9 -2.5 -0.9 39.8 45.4 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -9.4 -8.5 -5.1 -1.3 35.9 45.1 -8.8 -7.2 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -2.9 -3.6 -1.4 34.0 43.2 -3.0 -1.4 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -4.6 -1.4 35.0 43.9 -3.5 -2.0 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -4.0 -3.7 -4.7 -1.6 31.8 43.9 -3.5 -2.1 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -4.8 -1.5 34.3 45.2 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -5.0 -1.4 35.0 45.3 -3.5 -2.1 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -3.2 -2.3 -4.0 -1.3 36.4 42.8 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 -4.9 -4.4 -4.5 -1.6 31.3 43.1 -4.2 -2.7 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -2.8 -5.2 -1.7 31.6 44.1 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -2.7 -1.1 38.0 44.4 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -6.5 -5.6 -5.0 -1.3 36.9 44.0 -6.0 -4.2 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -2.7 -1.1 37.1 44.0 -3.6 -1.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -9.3 -7.6 -5.8 -0.9 40.9 45.7 -8.6 -6.5 -4.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.2 36.0 44.0 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -4.0 -3.3 -2.8 -1.1 37.1 43.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -3.4 -2.9 -1.2 36.0 43.1 -3.7 -2.1 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -4.0 -3.3 -3.9 -1.2 36.3 43.4 -3.6 -2.2 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -3.1 -3.8 -1.3 34.5 44.1 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -3.4 -4.5 -1.1 37.8 46.2 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -2.4 -2.7 -1.0 38.7 45.6 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -5.5 -5.2 -4.9 -1.8 29.7 42.6 -4.9 -3.4 -1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -6.6 -5.4 -5.4 -1.1 38.5 44.6 -6.0 -4.2 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -2.6 -2.4 -1.0 38.9 45.0 -3.1 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------