***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 1.8 3.2 -3.9 14.6 16.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.7 -4.0 14.2 15.9 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 2.6 2.1 3.1 -4.1 14.6 16.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 0.8 -4.0 14.9 16.0 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 2.6 2.2 1.6 -4.4 14.2 15.5 4.8 6.7 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 2.5 1.8 0.9 -4.5 13.2 14.8 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 1.6 1.3 2.8 -3.8 14.5 16.1 3.5 5.1 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 -2.6 -3.6 0.5 -4.9 11.0 12.4 -0.4 1.4 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 3.3 2.9 2.5 -4.3 14.9 16.3 5.5 7.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 2.6 1.8 1.3 -4.9 12.4 13.7 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 2.6 2.1 1.6 -4.5 14.1 15.5 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 2.8 1.9 1.1 -4.7 12.3 13.7 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 2.6 1.8 1.5 -4.7 12.0 13.6 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 2.8 2.0 2.1 -4.9 13.2 14.8 5.2 7.3 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 2.4 2.3 2.5 -3.2 18.3 19.6 4.0 5.5 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 3.1 2.6 1.6 -4.3 14.5 16.0 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 1.4 1.1 2.3 -3.9 14.5 16.0 3.3 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 1.5 0.7 0.8 -5.1 11.6 13.0 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 1.6 1.1 2.8 -4.0 14.4 16.1 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -0.2 -1.7 -0.7 -5.0 9.2 10.6 2.2 4.2 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 2.7 2.3 2.9 -4.2 14.5 15.9 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 1.7 1.3 2.4 -4.0 14.2 15.9 3.8 5.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 2.2 1.8 2.9 -4.1 14.5 16.3 4.2 5.9 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 3.1 2.3 2.1 -4.8 13.1 14.6 5.5 7.5 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 2.0 1.6 2.0 -4.3 13.2 14.4 4.1 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 3.1 2.1 0.9 -4.6 9.8 11.4 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 2.4 1.9 2.8 -4.1 14.0 15.5 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.6 -3.8 16.3 17.6 4.5 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 -0.2 -1.2 0.2 -5.0 10.9 12.5 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 1.7 1.3 3.0 -3.9 14.4 16.1 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------