***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 3.5 4.2 -0.6 44.1 46.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.3 3.6 -0.7 43.2 45.7 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.7 4.2 -0.6 44.1 46.1 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 41.5 44.0 -1.6 0.3 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.4 2.9 -0.8 42.4 44.6 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.9 2.6 -0.8 41.7 45.0 2.9 4.7 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.1 3.6 -0.7 43.5 46.1 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -2.7 -1.3 2.5 -0.9 40.6 43.5 -2.0 -0.4 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.9 3.6 -0.7 42.9 44.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.2 3.0 -0.8 41.6 44.1 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.8 4.6 3.1 -0.7 43.2 45.1 3.5 5.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.5 3.0 -0.8 41.9 44.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.5 4.2 2.8 -0.8 41.5 44.8 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.5 3.5 -0.8 42.0 44.1 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.7 2.7 -0.8 41.4 44.1 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.0 2.9 -0.7 43.0 45.3 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 3.3 -0.8 42.2 44.8 2.0 3.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.5 2.8 -0.9 40.6 43.4 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.8 3.8 -0.7 43.4 45.7 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -0.1 1.2 1.2 -1.2 37.0 41.3 0.7 2.5 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.8 4.0 -0.7 43.4 45.4 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.4 3.4 -0.8 42.1 44.4 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.8 4.0 -0.7 43.3 45.4 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.8 4.8 3.7 -0.8 42.6 44.6 3.7 5.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.6 3.8 2.9 -0.8 41.8 44.7 2.9 4.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.7 2.7 -0.9 39.3 44.2 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 4.5 3.6 -0.7 43.1 45.8 3.5 5.2 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.1 2.7 -0.8 42.2 44.5 3.1 4.9 6.6 28 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -0.5 0.8 2.1 -1.1 38.8 42.3 0.3 1.9 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.5 3.9 -0.6 43.8 46.2 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------